Why You Feel Your Leaders Are Stupid

Lessons from World War I

Have you ever looked at a leader’s decision—a CEO’s failed product launch, a politician’s botched policy—and thought, “How could they be so stupid?”

It’s a common reaction, but it often comes from a cognitive trap called hindsight bias. Once we know how something turned out, we assume the mistakes were obvious.

World War I, often dismissed as a pointless slaughter, is a powerful example. The major powers made choices that seemed rational in their time. Today, they look foolish.

But for anyone shaping strategy, telling stories, or building influence, there’s something to learn here.

Understanding hindsight bias sharpens how you lead—and how you talk about leadership.

Hindsight Bias in WW1 Leadership

Hindsight bias makes the past feel more predictable than it ever was.

We look back at WW1 and call it “futile” because we know the cost: millions dead, empires gone, peace that didn’t last. But the decisions that led there were shaped by internal politics, external pressures, and short-term wins.

Austria-Hungary went to war with Serbia in 1914 to hold on to its power in the Balkans. The Archduke mocked the whole thing, calling Serbia unworthy—but Vienna still acted, hoping for stability after years of tension. By 1917, they had won that front. Temporarily.

Germany spent the war debating how much to demand. The Treaty of Brest-Litovsk handed them huge territory in the east—Finland, Ukraine, the Baltics—which felt like a major win. But it angered the Allies and backfired.

Russia wanted to restore its global status, and controlling Constantinople was seen as essential. Looking back, it sounds reckless. But in 1914, it was a serious goal of a serious power.

These weren’t random moves. They were bets—risky, yes, but not clueless. And hindsight bias flattens that, making the people behind them look incompetent when they weren’t.

Why We Judge Leaders as Stupid

Once we know how a story ends, we simplify everything that led to it.

Russia’s push for Constantinople looks like a farce. Italy’s “sacred egoism” now seems greedy. But both moves were logical inside their time. Leaders argued, hedged, and adapted. It just didn’t work out.

The same thing happens today.

A startup tanks and we decide the business model was obviously broken. A political move flops and we assume the data clearly said not to do it. But that’s not how these decisions looked when they were made.

Hindsight bias lets us feel smarter than the people who actually had to make the call. It tempts thought leaders to dunk on bad outcomes and look sharp doing it.

But it also erodes your own credibility.

Once you start oversimplifying others’ failures, people wonder if you’ll do the same when your own bets don’t pan out.

Strategies for Thought Leaders

Avoiding hindsight bias isn’t just a mindset thing. It’s a skill set. Use these four strategies to strengthen how you lead, communicate, and think through risk:

1. Get the Context Right
   When The Great War breaks down Germany’s Mitteleuropa plan or France’s obsession with Alsace-Lorraine, it doesn’t call them “crazy.” It explains where they came from.
   Do the same in your work. Before you critique a failed decision, dig into what people knew and believed at the time. That backstory makes you sharper—and more credible.

2. Plan for More Than One Outcome
   WW1 leaders weren’t sure what would happen. Germany made a peace offer in 1916. It failed because of conditions they thought others would accept.
   Use scenario planning to prepare for multiple futures. Imagine what else could happen. Share those alternate paths with your team. It builds resilience and helps you avoid the trap of thinking the present was ever obvious.

3. Talk in Layers, Not Labels
   Just say that WW1 was “pointless” isn’t helpful. It shows how different players had different stakes.
   Do that in your storytelling. Don’t just call something a flop. Talk about the moving parts: market conditions, team debates, shifting assumptions. People trust you more when you resist the urge to simplify.

4. Track Your Own Predictions
   You’re not immune to hindsight bias. That’s why a decision journal helps. Write down your assumptions before a big call. Then revisit them.
   Did you really see that outcome coming? Or does it just feel that way now? That habit keeps your judgment honest—and makes you better over time.

These aren’t just tactics. They shape how others see you. When you show context, plan with humility, and resist hot takes, you build a reputation for clear thinking. That matters when outcomes are unclear.

Applying Insights to Modern Leadership

This isn’t just about WW1. We still misread decisions all the time.

Take Google Glass. When it flopped, people laughed it off. But in 2013, wearable tech was everywhere. The decision made sense in that moment. We just forgot that context.

Same with policy failures. A pandemic plan looks bad when cases rise. But leaders were often flying blind.

As a thought leader, use this to your advantage.

When you talk about failure—yours or someone else’s—offer layers, not labels. Share alternative scenarios you thought about. Show your audience how you thought through a tough choice.

That’s how you build trust. And it’s how you stand out.

Conclusion

WW1 shows us that leadership often looks foolish in hindsight—but rarely felt that way at the time.

Austria-Hungary’s gamble, Germany’s eastern plans, Russia’s ambitions—these were complex moves made in messy contexts.

And that’s exactly how most modern decisions get made.

If you want to lead with credibility, learn to pause before you judge. Build the habit of asking what the decision looked like before the outcome.

That shift—from judgment to understanding—is what sets serious leaders apart.