How to Make Decisions in Do-or-Die Situations (Lessons from the First Anglo-Afghan War)
One Single Campaign Teaches Us Both Success and Failure Cases
Picture yourself leading a team with a major deadline looming. Your product’s breaking down, the client’s furious, and your team’s stretched thin. You could scrap a feature, reassign staff, or push through—but each option carries risk. Revenue, reputation, morale—they're all on the line. You weigh each variable, stalling for a perfect solution. But in high-pressure moments, hesitation is often worse than a bad move.
History has something to say about this. The First Anglo-Afghan War (1838–1842) is one campaign with two drastically different outcomes. General Sir John Keane’s daring win at Ghazni in 1839 sits in sharp contrast to the disastrous retreat from Kabul in 1842. These events, both shaped by desperation, show us how to lead when everything’s at stake.
Making Decisions Under Pressure: Siege of Ghazni
In July 1839, the British Army of the Indus faced a crisis. They had just two days of rations left. Exhausted from heat, disease, and a brutal march, they had already lost 20,000 camels. Dost Mohammad’s relief army was en route from Kabul, and they lacked the supplies to wait him out. The fortress of Ghazni stood in their path—tall walls, a moat, and no heavy artillery to break through. The only shot was a risky frontal assault on the Kabul Gate, based on shaky intel suggesting a weakness.
It looked like suicide. The expected toll? 3,000 men. Too many to lose before facing Dost Mohammad.
Keane didn’t flinch.
On July 23, 1839, he gambled everything. His forces detonated 300 pounds of gunpowder, blasted open the gate, stormed the city—and won in hours, with only 200 casualties. Dost Mohammad fled, and the road to Kabul lay open.
Why it worked:
Acted with limited information. The intel on the Kabul Gate was sketchy, but he trusted it enough to move.
Took a calculated risk. The alternative was certain defeat or starvation.
Moved fast. Waiting would’ve meant being overrun.
Keane’s decision didn’t hinge on perfection. It hinged on urgency, instinct, and choosing the best of bad options.
How to Not Make Decisions Under Pressure: Retreat from Kabul
Fast-forward to January 1842. The British in Kabul faced a similar crisis—siege conditions, fading supplies, a brutal winter, and growing attacks. They were cornered in a vulnerable valley outpost. They could fight, fortify, or negotiate.
General William Elphinstone chose to wait.
Old, indecisive, and overwhelmed, he clung to the idea of negotiations with Akbar Khan or a far-off rescue. He brushed off his officers' pleas to act, fixated on delaying until something—anything—changed. It didn’t.
When talks failed, Elphinstone ordered a retreat through snow-covered passes. That decision doomed them. Out of 16,500 soldiers and civilians, only one man reached Jalalabad.
Where it failed:
Overanalyzed everything. Delay made everything worse.
Chased a false sense of rescue. Hoping for negotiations or backup blinded him to reality.
Ignored expertise. Dismissed his team’s calls to act.
Elphinstone’s legacy is a warning: when the pressure’s on, waiting can be lethal.
Applying Historical Lessons in Everyday Life
These two leaders faced near-identical circumstances. One chose action. The other froze. Their stories are useful reminders for how we make decisions under stress—at work, in relationships, or with money.
Here’s how to apply Keane’s approach (and avoid Elphinstone’s):
Increase your failure budget. Build in time, resources, or energy so you can take risks without fear of collapse.
Get used to uncertainty. Drop the idea of perfect conditions. Act when it’s “good enough.”
Stop the spiral. Cut off overthinking. Shrink your options and choose the least bad path. Then move.
Here’s what that looks like in real life:
1. Career: Taking a Risky Role
You’re offered a stretch promotion. You don’t feel ready, but waiting could stall your growth.
Act with the information you have. Use a failure budget—build savings or block time to skill up.
And stop overanalyzing. Don’t debate every downside. Shrink it to this: say yes now, or stay stuck. Then choose—and commit.
2. Personal: Resolving Conflict
A friendship’s strained. You’re running through every way the conversation could go wrong.
Take action before the relationship fades out. Accept awkwardness as part of your failure budget.
Then drop the mental ping-pong. You only need one decent path forward—reach out, talk, try. That’s it.
3. Financial: Navigating Market Volatility
You’re watching a stock dip, torn between fear of losing more and fear of missing out.
Instead of waiting for the “perfect” signal, act with discipline. Set a loss cap as your failure budget and move in.
Cut the spiral of what-ifs. Choose one: buy now with a plan, or sit it out. Then stick to it.
These aren’t war stories. But they follow the same logic. Build a margin for error. Take action in uncertainty. And most importantly—shut down the mental churn and pick a path.
Conclusions
The First Anglo-Afghan War offers a clear split-screen of leadership.
Ghazni: Keane, with no perfect intel or resources, acted fast and won.
Kabul: Elphinstone, with similar stakes, hesitated and lost nearly everyone.
From that, you get a simple playbook. Act fast when the cost of delay is high. Use what you know, even if it’s incomplete. Bet on action, not perfection.
In your own high-pressure moments—career, relationships, money—remember: you don’t need a perfect plan. You just need to move.