Chinese Great Leap Forward Can Teach Us Useful Lessons on Human Psychology
Human Desire for Certainty Is the Root Problem Behind Many Problems
In 1958, China launched the Great Leap Forward, a campaign to transform its economy overnight. Mao Zedong promised a future of abundance, but the result was one of history’s worst famines, claiming up to 45 million lives. Local officials, desperate to meet impossible quotas, reported wildly inflated grain and steel outputs, masking a collapsing reality.
The catastrophe wasn’t just a policy failure—it was a window into human psychology. Our craving for certainty, our need to feel in control, drove leaders and citizens alike to ignore what was in front of them. By examining the Great Leap Forward (GLF), we see how this plays out on a national scale—and how we fall into the same traps in our personal and professional lives.
The Great Leap Forward
The Great Leap Forward (1958–1962) aimed to push China into global industrial leadership through mass collectivization. Mao set sky-high targets—doubling steel production, tripling grain yields. Local cadres, afraid of admitting failure, inflated their numbers to avoid consequences. In 1958, they claimed 375 million tons of grain; in reality, it was closer to 200 million. They said they made 11 million tons of steel, but much was useless slag from backyard furnaces. These lies had devastating consequences. The state took more food than existed, leaving rural communities to starve.
China wasn’t alone in this. In the 1970s and 1980s, Uzbekistan’s leaders exaggerated cotton yields to meet Soviet quotas. Under Sharof Rashidov, the republic claimed millions of tons of nonexistent cotton, draining billions of rubles and wrecking the environment.
Fast forward to 2021. Sri Lanka, facing a currency crisis, abruptly banned chemical fertilizers. The president promised that organic farming would keep yields steady. Instead, rice output dropped by 20% in six months. The country had to import $450 million worth of food. The ban sparked protests and eventually brought down the president. The pattern? Pretending to have control, while ignoring reality.
Even companies fall into this. Enron, the U.S. energy giant, faked earnings to hide financial trouble. They projected invincibility—until everything collapsed. Thousands of jobs and billions in retirement savings disappeared. Their leaders, like GLF cadres, couldn’t face the truth.
Across regimes and markets—authoritarian or capitalist—the instinct is the same. People in power want to look certain. That impulse often leads to deception. And denial doesn’t just distort numbers. It destroys lives.
How It Is Useful in Everyday Life
Mao’s officials weren’t the only ones hooked on control. Most of us share the same instinct. We want clarity. We want guarantees. And so we build beliefs—excuses, shortcuts, biases—that keep us comfortable and stuck.
Take limiting beliefs. Telling yourself, “I’m not creative enough to start a business,” shuts down possibility before you even try. It’s the same fear that kept GLF officials from admitting low yields.
Or look at excuses: “I’m too busy to exercise.” It shifts blame—like officials blaming the weather for a failed harvest. Confirmation bias works the same way. You filter out any news that your job might be at risk, just like GLF leaders clung to inflated data.
These habits give us short-term comfort. But long-term, they set us back. Just like the GLF planners delayed action until it was too late.
You see it in daily choices. A student avoids a hard class because they’re “not a math person.” A mid-career professional stays at a stale job because “now’s not the time to make a move.” Clinging to certainty makes us feel safe. But often, we’re lying to ourselves.
Recognizing that is the first step forward.
What Can We Do About This
Start with awareness. It’s normal to want control. But chasing certainty often means running from reality.
Spot your own patterns: limiting beliefs, excuses, confirmation bias. These aren’t just quirks. They’re traps. Call them out.
Then, shift how you approach uncertainty.
In your career: don’t bank on job security. Build skills in fields like AI or data science to stay adaptive.
In your relationships: speak up instead of going quiet to keep the peace. False harmony solves nothing.
With money: set up a backup fund. Don’t assume nothing bad will happen.
The GLF failed because its leaders bet everything on a fantasy. You don’t have to. Preparation is smarter than denial.
Last—learn to think in bets. It’s a mindset borrowed from poker. Focus on odds, not guarantees.
Want to start a business? Test a small idea first. Sell something simple online. Don’t go all-in on day one. Choosing a college major? Check the market, but don’t expect a perfect path. Learn as you go.
The Great Leap Forward turned into a national tragedy because leaders couldn’t admit what wasn’t working. Today, that same mindset shows up in boardrooms, on farms, in classrooms, and in everyday decisions.
Certainty is comforting. But it’s also limiting.
When you let go of needing all the answers, you free yourself to move, adjust, and grow.